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Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
– Groucho Marx
Economic data reports are subject to measurement error, statistical noise, and seasonal adjustment difficulties. They should always be taken with a grain of salt. However, that’s not to say that the figures are useless. Rather, they are subject to interpretation. What then do we make of the situation when the hard data conflicts with the anecdotal information?
Nonstore sales, which include mail order and internet retailers (such as Amazon), rose 10.2% y/y in April, continuing a strong upward trend. There’s a lot to be said for convenience. We’re also seeing strong sales gains at restaurants and bars, supported by the drop in gasoline prices, but also reflecting the long-standing trend of households taking more meals outside the home (again, there’s a lot to be said for convenience). Consumers are also paying more for their medical prescriptions. Sales at pharmaceutical and drug stores are reported with a lag, but they were up 7.9% for the 12 months ending in March.
Many of the economic reports for March appear to have been distorted by the early Easter. Figures are adjusted for the timing of Easter, but it’s difficult to get it right (as there are interactions between the holiday and weather). Softer March figures should then be followed by a rebound in April. That was the case with unit auto sales and the retail sales numbers, and we should see a similar pattern in other economic data reports. Given this noise, how do we gauge the underlying strength of the consumer? We can take the average of March and April, but figures for May will help to confirm whether the economy is strengthening or simply trending at a moderate pace.
Beyond the numbers, it’s clear that there is economic angst out there (reflecting dissatisfaction with the Washington establishment). While the economy is improving in aggregate, it’s not necessarily advancing for the average citizen.